Host: Battery Power, Navigant Research

Moderator: Richard Martin, Editorial Director, Navigant Research

Presentation:

Sam Jaffe, Senior Research Analyst, Navigant Research: Lithium Ion Marketplace and Market. The history of LI technology since the 1980’s is now Lithium Cobalt, Lithium Manganese Spinel, Lithium Iron Phosphate and Lithium Titanate and Nickel Manganese Cobalt. The dominant chemistry for the future is Magnesium Ion because is does not form dendrites and Magnesium is cheaper than other chemicals. Lithium Sulphur (LiS) has excellent energy density but short longevity. Lithium Air (LO) is the Holy Grail of battery research because it is close to the energy density of gasoline (4000Wh/kg). Lithium Capacitor (LiC) has only 15Wh/kg, but solves some of the cost problems of supercapacitors.

The concept of the inflection point: every market that batteries enter reach a balance point of supply and demand that  is followed by a sudden jump in demand. ie: EV LI batteries are moving to Nickel Cadmium Ion.

Cost Forecast: Batteries have reached their floor ($250/kWh), but the potential to go lower than $200 is very possible. The price of Small Format  LI cells have drastically dropped and Large Format LI cells will follow suit. The EV Battery Pack Costs: Tesla 65kWh Nickel Cadmium Aluminum $25,000 per cell/$40,000/pack, Nissan Leaf 25 kWh Costs: $11,000/cell and $16,000/pack.

LI Battery EV Market Forecasts by Region:  Overall growth to $45 billion market in 2022 globally with strongest sectors NA, Western Europe and Asia.

LI Battery for Stationary Storage: Frequency regulation is the only market making money now, but is expected to grow from the current less than $1 Billion market to a $7 Billion market by 2022.

Trends in Portable Action Batteries: The desire is for more battery and power management rather than trying to design a new chip.

Portable Application Markets: LI plays well in instrumentation and movement devices (ie mobile wheel chairs). Growth is from $6 to $10 Billion by 2023.

Power Tool Battery Forecast: from $300 Billion to $650 Billion by 2023.

Total Forecast: Overall growth from $10 Billion in consumer electronics to $70 Billion by 2023 as LI are applied in Defense and Medical markets.

Stephen Kelly, Senior VP of Sales, Green Charge Market

Green Charge installed their first storage system in 2011 through a DOE grant. Everyone is trying to solve the energy storage puzzle (chemical, thermal, etc. ) Utilities are doing more bulk storage in order to reduce problems with overcapacity. Currently the growth in energy storage is for: arbitrage, reduced peak demand storage, and combine the two. California AB 2514 mandates 1.3 GW of storage by 2020. The first window is 2014. All sectors are rushing to meet that quota.

Financial Case Study of 7-11 Store in New York: Consumer bill (energy and demand charges) can be over 50% demand charges that are on the rise need to change. Increasing consumer hedge against the rising demand charge through Smart controls, energy storage and  networked communications that reduce peak demand resulting in 30% reduction in electricity bill. When solar is added to the system the drop in demand drops 200%.

Case Study of 1MGW system: comparing solar only with solar and battery shows consistent usage across non peak and peak demand windows.

There is much revenue potential as customers are installing energy storage, creating Energy Arbitrage (storing cheap energy to use during expensive energy windows). This requires no behavioral changes, lasts 3 – 5 years and has immediate payback.

The average installation is a 90 – 100 kWh system with an expected lifecycle of 11-14 years.

Summary: Battery storage for energy arbitration to mitigate the cost of peak demand electricity is the new market (low hanging fruit), especially in CA and NY where the demand charges are very high.

Resources: This webinar is archived on the webinar page of Navigant Research (www.navigantresearch.com) and is available for replay.

Navigant Research has an Advanced Battery Tracker analysis tool for sale to predict LI market growth in specific sectors.

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